FORECAST FOR EXPORT OF COFFEE COFFEE MULTIPLE 2019
According to estimates, Vietnam’s coffee exports in 12/2018 reached 160 thousand tons, worth 287 million USD, up 15.8% in volume and 11.5% in value compared with 11/2018, compared with For the same period in 2017, it decreased by 2.4% in volume and 12.1% in value. In 2018, our country’s coffee exports reached 1.882 million tons, worth US $ 3.544 billion, up 20.1% in volume and 1.2% in value compared to 2017.
The Export and Import Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that in 12/2018, the price of domestic Robusta coffee decreased compared to November 2018. On December 27, 2018, Robusta coffee price decreased from 4.3 to 6.4% compared to November 30, 2018. Currently, the price of coffee in the domestic market has the lowest level of 32,200 VND / kg in Di Linh district (Lam Dong), the highest level is 33,400 VND / kg in Cu M’gar and Buon Ho districts in Dak Lak province. At warehouses around Ho Chi Minh City, R1 Robusta coffee is priced at VND 34,100 / kg, down 5.8%.
In 12/2018, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee reached USD 1,794 / ton, down 3.8% compared to November 2018 and down 10.0% compared to December 2017. In 2018, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee reached USD 1,883 / ton, down 15.7% compared to 2017.
Regarding export categories, in 11/2018, Robusta coffee exports reached 120 thousand tons, worth 202.42 million USD, up 44.1% in volume and 26.5% in value compared to November. / 2017. Notably, Excelsa coffee exports increased by 3,432.9% in volume and increased 3,169.7% in value compared to November 2017, reaching 678 tons, worth USD 1.17 million.
In 11 months of 2018, Robusta coffee export reached 1.47 million tons, worth USD 2.541 billion, up 31.6% in volume and 8.1% in value compared to May 11, 2017. Export price Average Robusta coffee in 11 months of 2018 reached 1,728 USD / kg, down 17.8%. Meanwhile, the average export price of instant coffee reached US $ 5,078 / ton, up 3.2% compared to 11 months of 2017.
The Export and Import Department predicts that in the first 6 months of 2019, Vietnam’s coffee exports will continue to face difficulties due to low global coffee prices; coffee exports are likely to be lower than the same period in 2018 due to reduced production.
Besides, in the first 6 months of 2019, the global coffee market is still under pressure of oversupply, the potential risks of global economy will also have a certain impact on the demand for coffee consumption.
The global coffee market has also appeared a positive signal when Vietnam’s coffee production is expected to decline sharply. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Vietnam’s coffee production in 2018/19 crop decreased by 20% compared to the previous forecast due to the impact of climate change in 2018 and the coffee area decreased by about 6% in 2017 and 2018 due to crop conversion. While the effects of El Nino have occurred in some areas of Australia, Brazil and India, it is likely to affect crop yields and yields of agricultural products. Recently, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that coffee surpluses are only short-term, while the annual consumption demand is still growing steadily. Therefore, it is likely that in the second half of 2019, coffee prices will recover after excess coffee is absorbed, but the increase will not be too high.